Coquest

Your Daily Energy Report for February 18, 2026

Posted on 2026-02-18

Crude Oil

Crude Oil futures for March settled up $2.86 or 4.588% at $65.19. Oil prices rose this Wednesday, reclaiming the $65 per barrel level as a tightening physical market overshadowed recent demand uncertainty. This rally was ignited by the International Energy Agency’s latest data, which revealed that January global supplies were slashed by 1.2 million bpd due to winter-related outages and export bottlenecks. Bullish momentum was further sustained as robust refinery intake from China and India effectively absorbed the available surplus, leaving the seaborne market increasingly lean. Geopolitical risk premiums also returned to the forefront following reports of heightened alert levels in the Middle East and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz transit corridor. While the prospect of an OPEC+ production increase in April remains a lingering headwind, the market is currently prioritizing immediate scarcity over future policy shifts or the slow ramp-up of Venezuelan barrels.

​​​​​Natural Gas

Natural Gas futures for March settled down -$.02 or -.66% at $3.011. Natural gas prices fell today due to an overwhelmingly warm outlook for late February. This bearish sentiment is intensified by a dramatic recovery in Lower 48 production, which has proven remarkably resilient following recent winter storms and is now bolstered by a 2.5-year high in the active rig count. While a modest storage deficit remains, the EIA’s upward revision of 2026 output forecasts to nearly 110 bcf/d suggests that supply will soon outstrip current inventory gaps. Market technicals reinforce this downward trend, with heavy resistance levels and the 50-day moving average capping any potential relief rallies. Consequently, the industry is bracing for a return to "sell the rally" dynamics, with many analysts anticipating a definitive breach of the $3.000 floor.
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