Coquest

Your Daily Energy Report for December 9, 2025

Posted on 2025-12-09

Crude Oil

Crude Oil futures for January settled down -$.63 or -1.07% at $58.25. Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, as persistent rising supply signals outweighed lingering geopolitical risk. Traders are keenly anticipating official IEA and OPEC+ guidance due later this week, especially after the IEA flagged a sizable 2026 glut and OPEC+ revised its Q3 outlook from deficit to surplus. The bearish fundamental pressure was intensified as China stepped up January buys of Saudi crude to five-month highs following Riyadh's price cuts, while Iraq restored output at the WestQurna-2 field adding about 0.5% of global supply. These new barrels, combined with recent US inventory builds, collectively undermined the necessity for an immediate inventory drawdown, neutralizing the risk premiums associated with both Ukraine and Venezuela. Nonetheless, market attention remains fixed on the Federal Reserve, where a widely anticipated 25 bp cut is still expected to provide a substantial lift to global fuel demand next year.

​​​​​Natural Gas

Natural Gas futures for January settled down -$.377 or -7.128% at $4.912. Natural gas prices dropped today, erasing gains from last week's surge, as the market reacted strongly to new forecasts for milder weather over the subsequent two weeks. This price drop was compounded by the fact that near-record production continues, with the average gas output in the Lower 48 states rising to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day in December, narrowly surpassing the prior monthly record set in November. Consequently, this strong supply push has allowed companies to substantially stockpile more gas than usual, leaving current inventories about 5% above normal for this time of year. While LSEG still projects average demand, including exports, to rise next week to 146 bcfd from the current 143.8 bcfd, meteorologists suggest that near-normal weather through December 23 will keep heating demand relatively subdued.
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