Coquest

Your Daily Energy Report for March 12, 2025

Posted on 2025-03-12

Crude Oil

Crude Oil futures for April settled up $1.43 or 2.158% at $67.68. Oil prices jumped on Wednesday. This marked a second consecutive session of gains fueled by strong US demand signals from recent data and improved market sentiment amid easing inflation concerns. US consumer prices showed their slowest increase in four months, suggesting a potentially more patient approach from the Federal Reserve. Despite these positive indicators, oil prices remain well below their highs from mid-January, impacted by uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, OPEC+'s production plans, and weakening demand in China. Reports of increased OPEC+ production, notably Kazakhstan surpassing its output quota, tempered further price increases. Meanwhile, Canada's announcement of $20.8 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US goods and the EIA's downward revision of the global oil surplus forecast for 2025 and beyond also influenced market dynamics.
 

Natural Gas

Natural Gas futures for April settled down -$.369 or -8.287% at $4.084. Natural gas prices fell today, driven by rising production levels and forecasts for milder weather, which offset strong demand and record LNG export activity. Gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 105.8 bcfd in March, surpassing February’s record of 105.1 bcfd. Meanwhile, the latest EIA projections indicate that US natural gas stockpiles will drop below 1.7 trillion cubic feet by the end of March, putting them 10% under the five-year average. This tighter supply outlook led the EIA to revise its 2025 Henry Hub price estimate upward to $4.20/MMBtu—an 11% increase—with expectations of reaching $4.50/MMBtu in 2026. In the political sphere, trade tensions escalated when Trump proposed doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, citing Ontario’s 25% electricity surcharge.

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